International spread, B.1.617.2
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210512-indian-covid-19-variant-found-in-44-countries-around-world-says-who
44 countries
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Professor Anthony Harnden
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-india-variant-uk-vaccine-cases-lockdown/
Vaccines are almost certainly less effective at reducing transmission of the Indian variant
The vaccines may be less effective against mild disease
but we don’t think they’re less effective against severe disease
all the evidence so far suggests there is no evidence of increased severity of illness or that the variant evades the vaccine
Kolkata
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-india-57106648
There are currently five VOCs in the United States
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html
B.1.1.7: UK
B.1.351: SA
P.1: Brazil
B.1.427 and B.1.429: California
UK official numbers of B.1.617.2
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data#Variant12
UK, B.1.617.2
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57119579
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57126318
SAGE, now confident it is more transmissible than existing variants
Not sure how much
Prof Chris Whitty
That’s a really critical question to which we do not yet have the answer
SAGE, realistic possibility it could be 50%
Probably will become the dominant strain in the UK
Outbreak, south Glasgow
Scotland, 35
Northern Ireland, 12
Wales, 11
Sage report 13th May, 89th meeting
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf
R rate
England 0.8 – 1.1
Wales, 0.7 – 1
Scotland, 0.8 – 1.0
NI, 0.8 – 1.1
There are now multiple fast-growing clusters of this variant in the UK
Largest in the northwest of England
Observed doubling times are around a week
Places where transmission of this variant is occurring have different characteristics to each other
Plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible
In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures currently in place,
an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed (high confidence)
If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7,
indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)
Progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak
SAGE and immune escape
May be some reduction in protection given by vaccines or by naturally acquired immunity from past infection,
though data on this are still mixed.
Any such reduction is likely to affect protection against infection more than protection against severe disease or death
not yet any clear evidence of any difference in disease severity following infection with this variant
(rapid sequencing of hospitalised cases and infections post vaccination is important)
JCVI continues to review the evidence on different vaccination strategies.
Source