No evidence for changes in symptoms from UK variant
1.76 million users between 28th September and 27th December 2020
Using longitudinal symptom and test reports, n = 36,920
Northern Ireland, unknown
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/no-evidence-for-changes-in-symptoms-from-new-coronavirus-variant
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.21250680v1
First identified in December 2020 in the south east of England
Studied association between the regional proportion of B.1.1.7 and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility
Disease severity
No evidence of an association between B.1.1.7 and number of symptoms reported
No evidence of increased number of hospitalisations
Counter evidence
SAGE meeting paper, 21st January
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf
There is a realistic possibility that VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to non-VOC viruses.
Disease duration
No evidence for change
Reported symptoms
No difference in symptoms reported
No difference in symptom duration
No difference in proportion of asymptomatic case
Claire Steves on symptoms
It’s important to emphasise the range of symptoms both the new and the old variant can cause,
such as headaches and sore throat,
in addition to the classic triad of cough, fever and loss of smell
Likely reinfection rate
Positive tests results from 36,509
304 reported two positive tests more than 90 days apart, 249 identified as reinfection
No difference in reinfection reporting rates across the different NHS regions
Around 0.7%
95% CI 0.6-0.8
No evidence that this was higher compared to older strains
Tim Spector on reinfection
It’s reassuring that reinfections are still really rare many months after previous infection, suggesting that both natural immunity and vaccines will be effective against this new strain
Increase in R(t)
By a factor of 1.35
Regional and national lockdowns have reduced R(t) below 1 in regions with very high proportions of B.1.1.7
Tim Spector
This research highlights the unique value of the ZOE app in understanding the impact of new coronavirus variants across the population in a matter of weeks,
and we need our app users to help us maintain vigilance against further new strains as they emerge
SA VOC in UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767
About 100 cases in the UK
Oxford A/A vaccine offers limited protection against mild and moderate disease caused by SA variant
AstraZeneca, not yet been able to properly establish if prevention of severe disease and hospitalisation
Current data mostly from young and healthy adults
AZ confident it will protect against serious cases
Similar neutralising antibodies still work
Prof Sarah Gilbert, Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine
Working on a new vaccine designed to combat the South African variant
This year we expect to show that the new version of the vaccine will generate antibodies that recognise the new variant
It looks very much like it will be available for the autumn
We’re already working on the first part of the manufacturing process in Oxford
that will be passed on to other members of the manufacturing supply chain as we go through the spring
Onset of protection
200,000 reports from vaccinated people
After 12 days, 53% reduction in new cases compared to non-vaccinated controls
First post trial data the vaccines are working after first shot
No protection at all for first 12 days
Toon, Netherlands
Snow
Spread of new variants
UK, SA, two Brazilian variants
UK variant, (Pathogenic Surveillance)
https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/research/pathogen-surveillance
Week of 11th to 17th January, 19.8% UK variant
Week of 27 January to 2 February, about two-thirds
South Africa variant
Found 23 times
Most had epidemiological links
Brazilian variants
P1 variant, 2 people who recently visited Brazil
P2 variant, 3 people, two with no travel history
Reproduction number on 15th January
Below 1 overall
Old variant, 0.86
UK variant, 1.28
It can therefore be deduced that the UK variant is more contagious
Current restrictions
https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/new-variants-disrupt-plans (Dutch CDC)
Lockdown and curfew
CDC, loosen measures now, hospitals are at risk of being overrun by March
Global vaccine tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
UK vaccine tracker
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
US vaccine tracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
Europe vaccine tracker
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/vaccines
Source