https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-down-70-since-new-year-peak
Cases down 70% since New Year peak
February 5, 2021
Daily average UK symptomatic cases, + 20,360
Based on swab tests data from up to five days ago
Around one million weekly reporters
The proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests
Data from 15,286 recent swab tests done between 17 to 31 January 2021.
Week before, + 28,645
Down 29%.
Peak of 1st January, + 69,000
Down 70%
UK Prevalence
One in 170 people in the UK currently symptomatic
(ONS, W/E 30th January, 1 in 65)
Dorset, Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole, 1 in 100
London, 1 in 102
Liverpool City Region, 1 in 122
The UK R value is 0.9
England, 0.9, Wales, 0.9, Scotland, 0.9
East Midlands, R = 1.0
Cases are coming down in all age groups
France (Anthony)
Just a short note today, awaiting this week’s government pow wow announcement as to whether
France are actually going to do anything about the imminent growing problem of the
UK Variant
Now growing 60% week on week
Now 14% of all cases.
Only 5 or 6% last week
Yet still they are avoiding lockdown as the country as usual is 50/50 split on it
Très bonne soiree
US, Reducing new infections
Natural infections + vaccinations
Post-holiday surge is probably over
Reduced travel
Millions of individual and family behaviours
Gatherings down
Mask wearing normalised
Memorial Day in May
Any gatherings will cause contagious variants to spread
VOC driven increase in cases, April
Herd immunity coming, but not yet
US, CDC data
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
Past 7 days
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus
New daily reported cases, down 18.8%
New daily reported deaths, up 0.3%
CoViD related hospitalizations, down 14.1% (86,373)
Test positivity rate, 7.4%
Vaccine doses since 14th December, 38,326,000
Two doses, 8,020,000 (2.46%)
https://covidtracking.com/data
UK data
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
New COVID-19 forecasts show the possibility of a spring spike in deaths if variants spread widely, people let down their guard
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-show-possibility-spring-spike-deaths-if-variants-spread-widely
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
University of Washington
Forecasts include vaccine distribution and the presence of the B.1.1.7
IF widespread transmission of the B.1.351 (South Africa VOC)
IF Mobility returning to pre-pandemic levels in the vaccinated
(67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated, Oxford AZ, one dose)
Approximately 654,000 total deaths by May 1
Without transmission of B.1.351, deaths drop to 595,000 deaths by May 1
Resurgence, spring in some states, California and Florida
Keeping mobility low and maintaining social distancing, 30,000 less deaths
Christopher Murray, director of IHME
Getting vaccines out quickly is essential,
and masks are still one of the best tools we have to keep transmission low
People will need to continue taking precautions even once they are vaccinated,
Factors
Some states are not re-imposing social distancing mandates even when daily death rates are high
Herd immunity, unlikely to slow transmission in the coming months
Higher levels of immunity are needed with a more contagious variant
IHME’s forecasts predict only 38% of people in the US will be immune by May 1.
Worst-case scenario, third wave next winter
Governments and the public need to plan for the real prospect that COVID-19 must be managed on an ongoing basis
It’s critical to vaccinate as many people as possible
and to prepare for long-term behaviour change
US trial
Cholecalciferol
Calcifediol
Heading into autumn and winter
Argentina, Australia, South Africa
Australia
Heading into autumn and winter
Time to start vaccinations
Source