Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) Study
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/
Imperial College London
Commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care,
Ipsos MORI
Antigen and antibody testing surveys
Repeated, non-overlapping, cross-sectional surveys, of random samples of the population
Self-administered throat and nose swabs and questionnaire data
Irrespective of symptoms
To estimate community-wide prevalence
Unbiased by testing availability or behaviour.
28 January – REACT-1 round 8 final report
England during January 2021
High average prevalence
Regional heterogeneity of trends
SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community
REACT-1 survey of prevalence in the community in England
Repeated cross-sectional samples of the population
Between 6th and 22nd January 2021
N = 167,642 results
Positive results = 2,282 were positive
Giving a weighted national prevalence of infection of 1.57%
(95% CI, 1.49%, 1.66%)
No strong evidence for either growth or decay averaged over the period 6th to 22nd January 2021
R number over this period was estimated at 0.98
(0.92, 1.04)
Why not more reduction in cases?
Higher average levels of mobility
More people allowed to physically attend their workplace
A larger number of children eligible to attend school
Higher intrinsic transmissibility of the new variant
Trend during 6th Jan to 22nd Jan
Prevalence remained high throughout, with suggestion of a decline
Regional heterogeneity
Decreasing prevalence in South West
Increasing prevalence in East Midlands
Prevalence during 6th Jan to 22nd Jan
Prevalence highest in London at 2.83%
Prevalence nationally highest in age 18 to 24 year, 2.44%
Those over 65 years, 0.93%
Correlations for higher prevalence
Large household size
Single person households, 1.24%
Households of seven or more people, 3.05%
Living in a deprived neighbourhood
Two most deprived quintiles, prevalence of 1.79%
Two highest quintiles, 1.22%
Black and Asian ethnicity
Black and Asian ethnicity, increased prevalence, 3.07%
White participants, 1.14%
Healthcare and care home workers
Healthcare and care home workers, 1.48%
Other workers, 1.35%
Other key workers
Context
Prevalence of infection in early to mid January 2021…
Highest since May 2020
High and rapidly increasing prevalence in the second wave
Partly, more transmissible strain
First observed in southern England in September 2020
Conclusion
Infection remain much higher than those seen during lockdown in May 2020
Shallower downward trajectory
Unless the prevalence of infection in the community can be lowered substantially
The extreme pressure on health services will continue over the coming weeks …
and possibly months,
until the vaccination programme protects sufficient numbers of at-risk individuals
Essential that we continue to observe public health measures,
Including social distancing, face covers, hand-washing and isolation of cases
If sustained lower prevalence is not achieved rapidly in England, pressure on healthcare services and numbers of COVID-19 deaths will remain unacceptably high.
Source