New variant dangers

Denmark and the US

Strict lockdown

New daily cases down

UK variant, cases increasing 70 % a week

Sequencing every positive coronavirus test

United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases

Camilla Holten Moller, State Serum Institute Group

Without this variant, we would be in really good shape

If you just look at the reproduction number, you just wouldn’t see that it was in growth underneath at all

Dominant strain of the virus, by mid-February

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, B.1.1.7 could be prevalent by March

Daily coronavirus cases in Denmark could quadruple by the beginning of April

Tyra Grove Krause, Scientific Director, sequencing institute

This period is going to be a bit like a tsunami

First detected 14th December

Maybe since 14th November

Early data, UK variant 36% more contagious in Denmark

Vaccines, late start, large scale, April

AstraZeneca’s vaccine, EMA, mid-February

Ireland

Highest per capita prevalence

42 out of 92 tests positive for 2020 12 variant

US

CDC data

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Past 7 days

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

New daily reported cases, down 20.4%

New daily reported deaths, down 7%

CoViD related hospitalizations, down 7.9%

Test positivity rate, 9.4%

Vacine doses, 19,714,000

Two doses, 2,756,000 (0.84%)

https://covidtracking.com/data

UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627

UK variant may be more deadly, (PM)

Most common variant in UK

Mathematicians comparing death rates

It’s largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure

R = 0.8 – 1.0

New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag)

Realistic possibility that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain

Patrick Vallance

There is evidence that there’s an increased risk for those who have the new variant

New variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster

Hints it is about 30% more deadly

For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected

Old variant, 10 deaths

New variant, 13 deaths

CFR, 1% up to 1.3%

Fifty other countries

VOCs and vaccination

Pfizer and AZ vaccines still expected to work

More concern about South African and Brazilian variants

Source