Worst ever Covid variant? Omicron
B.1.1.529
Increased contagion
Immune escape
Sicker people
WHO, VOC
https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern
The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution
Independent group of experts
First reported to WHO from South Africa on 24th November 2021
South Africa, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant
The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9th November 2021
Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant
The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa
Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant.
For one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected
(called S gene dropout or S gene target failure)
This variant may have a growth advantage.
How did the new variant develop?
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w
Professor Francois Balloux, Computational Biology Systems, University College London
Mutated during a chronic infection of a person whose immune system was already weakened by an untreated HIV/Aids infection
Botswana
Discovered, November 11th (collected 9th) 2021 in Botswana
South Africa
77 confirmed cases
90% of new cases in Gauteng, probably B.1.1.529
Early signs of rapid spread in Gauteng province, 900 cases per day
May have spread to eight other provinces in South Africa
SA, fully vaccinated, 24%
Israel
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/new-coronavirus-variant-reason-concern-say-researchers/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey
1 returnee from Malawi
Two other people suspected of having the variant are also in quarantine
All three were fully vaccinated
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
We are currently on the verge of a state of emergency
Belgium
1 case
Came from Egypt to Belgium on November 11th
First symptoms on November 22nd
Hong Kong
Two cases, from next door in quarantine hotel
Traveller from SA
Penny Moore, virologist, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/what-do-we-know-about-the-new-worst-ever-covid-variant
Breakthrough infections have been reported following,
Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer-BioNtech, Oxford-AstraZeneca
R = 2 so far
SA, National Institute for Communicable Diseases
Cases, + 2,465 (nearly double yesterdays)
32 mutations in the spike protein
10 on RBD
(Delta variant has 8 mutations)
Beta (SA) variant has 3
Younger people appear to be contracting and spreading
BioNTech-Pfizer need two weeks to assess new variant’s impact
Would need two weeks at most to assess how well its coronavirus vaccine works against B.1.1.529
may require an adjustment of our vaccine if the variant spreads globally
Global spread
WHO advises risk-based, scientific approach to travel restrictions
risk-based and scientific approach to travel restrictions
WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier
At this point, implementing travel restrictions is being cautioned against
UK flight bans so far
700 arrivals per day to UK from SA
South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini, Zimbabwe
Recent arrivals from southern Africa will also tracked down and offered tests
Germany, Italy, Israel, Kenya, Singapore, Japan, France, Bahrain, Czech Republic have also suspended flights
European Commission, called on members to ban flights
Sajid Javid
very live discussions about adding to the red list
Professor Danny Altmann, immunologist Imperial College
We thought delta was the dominant variant and nothing could displace it –
this looks potentially horrible enough to displace it, if it is allowed to spread.
We have all become pandemic fatigued, yet if this was a report of a terrorist threat, we would now be raising the threat level from amber to red.
Professor Madhukar Pai, global health, McGill University
This is what happens when we leave three billion plus people unvaccinated
Vaccines can be tweaked if needed
Dr Anthony Fauci
Flight ban possible
We need to get the facts
no indication it has yet reached the US
New variant is a red flag
Until it’s properly tested… we don’t know whether or not it evades the antibodies that protect you against the virus
Angelique Coetzee, South African Medical Association
For now, it is a storm in a tea cup
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59426277
Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Oxford
many red flags – more than we would’ve expected or ever planned for
Source