China enters second wave
Poor data, cases, infections, hospitalisations, deaths, genomes
https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn
Population 1,412,600,000
Will be infected in next 6 weeks
Daily new infection rate over an 8 week period
Per week = 176,575,000
Per day = 25,225,011
World meter
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Actual deaths
https://covid19.healthdata.org/china?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend
Over the next 3 months
Therefore about 100,000 deaths per month
About 3,300 per day
Population 1,412,600,000
Infection fatality rate = 0.000207
Main variants
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280588.shtml
Omicron, BF.7, (BA.5.2.1.7)
Sub-lineage of omicron variant BA.5
Italy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/29/europe-debates-tougher-covid-restrictions-half-chinese-arrivals/
Flight into Milan’s Malpensa airport
Mandatory Covid tests for flights from China
December 26
First flight, 38% tested positive
Second flight, 52% tested positive
Positives to be used for genomic testing
Spallanzani Institute, Italy, Infectious diseases hospital
It would be better if the coordination of surveillance should take place at a European level
Screening passengers from China
Italy, US, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan
UK not testing arrivals from China
26 direct flights due in January
Half a million visitors per year
Immune-evasive / more transmissible variant
Lots of people infected today
Some with immune compromise
Ongoing contact with potential animal reservoirs
Potential for reverse zoonosis
Professor Aris Katzourakis, Evolution and Genomics, University of Oxford
I am not going to predict a direction, but there will be a whole lot of opportunity for rapid change
Xu Wenbo, China, Center for Disease Control and Prevention
More than 130 omicron sublineages,
detected in China over the last three months
The fact that 1.4 billion people are suddenly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 obviously creates conditions prone to emerging variants
Antoine Flahault, Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva
Any variants, when more transmissible than the previous dominant ones, definitely represent threats, since they can cause new waves
When is a covid death a covid death?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/21/china-covid-infection-surge-puts-end-of-global-emergency-in-doubt-who
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/202212/a9510969ad85461297016f6ad1c87770.shtml
Prof Wang Guiqiang, National Health Commission
Revised its guidelines,
to scientifically and objectively reflect deaths caused by the coronavirus pandemic
Only fatalities caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure
Not deaths caused by cardiovascular, cerebrovascular diseases, blood clots, sepsis
the main cause of death from infection with Omicron is the underlying diseases
Source