ONS, W/E 26th June
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Community prevalence
0.39% in England (1 in 260 people)
0.22% in Wales (1 in 450 people)
0.15% in Northern Ireland (1 in 670 people)
0.68% in Scotland (1 in 150 people)
Alpha and Delta in England
ONS and COVID-19 reinfections, (June 29th)
Defining second infection
A new positive test 90 days or more after an initial first positive test
A new positive test following four consecutive negative tests
Rare
Milder than initial infections
Rate of asymptomatics in first and second infections
Reinfected less likely to report symptoms
First infection
Asymptomatic 21.8%
Second infection
Asymptomatic 57.1%
COVID-19 Infection Survey
The strength of an infection is measured by a cycle threshold (Ct) value.
Positive results with a low Ct value (30 or less)
Episodes of infection with a higher viral load
More likely to be ill
More infectious
Positive results with a high Ct value (30 or more)
Indicate a lower viral load
Less likely to be ill
Less infectious
Initial infections
Most people, low Ct value (higher viral load)
Reinfections
High Ct value (lower viral load)
CT values
Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Viral Load on Risk of Intubation and Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Clinical Infectious Diseases)
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa851/5865363
n = 678 hospitalized patients
CT value of 25 or less (high viral load)
Mortality, 35%
CT value of 25 to 30 (medium viral load)
Mortality, 17.7%
CT value above 30 (low viral load)
Mortality, 6.2%
US
Cases up 9.1% in past 7 days
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Of which 25% delta
Variants of interest
Variants of concern
Variants of high consequence
Adults with at least one dose of vaccine
Alabama, 50%
Wyoming, 50%
Virgin Islands, 49%
Louisiana, 48%
Mississippi, 46%
1,000 worst counties, 30% of adults with one dose or less
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/delta-delta-variants-everything-need-know-rcna1281
Europe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57676408
Decline in cases over the past 10 weeks
Hans Kluge, WHO Europe
new wave in the WHO European region unless we remain disciplined
mixing, travel, easing restrictions
Spain
Steep rise in 20s
Russia
Deaths, + 672
UK
Cases, + 26,068 + 27,125 (highest since 29th January)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Freedom day, too simplistic
David Nabarro
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/coronavirus-news-live-covid-vaccine-b1875209.html
We do have to be prepared for the inevitability that viruses will continue to be a problem for us
We’re going to have to really seriously contemplate continuing to practice some degree of physical distancing, some degree of mask wearing, some degree of hygiene,
some degree of protecting those who are most at risk, as long as there are these nasty viruses around, whether or not we’re vaccinated
It makes people very angry because they want to be able to stop being careful but it’s my advice,
and it’s just based on studying these things over the years, is that it is not a cool thing just to ditch our preventative measures on a particular date because we hope that’s going to be associated with less risk – the risks are going to stay
UK Vaccine boosters in Autumn
All adults aged 50 and over
NHS and care staff
Anyone who qualifies for a flu jab
Prof Anthony Harnden, Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation
we are worried about people who have had their vaccinations earlier on
We want to make sure they have a booster in time for the winter
We do know from other vaccines that immunity wanes quicker in older people than younger people
(Russia seems to be going for annual boosters)
Uganda
Population, 45 million
https://www.dw.com/en/uganda-president-museveni-tightens-covid-lockdown-as-cases-soar/a-58037127
President Yoweri Museveni, Friday public holiday for the nation to pray
Cases, + 20,000
Two million infections, increased holiday travel and Delta
Deaths, + 126 (most not recorded, highest so far)
42-day lockdown
Restrictions on movement
Roadblocks at district borders
COVID relief funds, mismanaged last year
Kampala
Lack of beds, oxygen, oxygen equipment, PPE, gloves, ambulances
Medical fees
Uganda’s private hospitals, cash down payments of $3,000
AstraZeneca, 834,721 doses since March
Africa, 1.3 billion people, 18% of the world’s population, 2% of vaccine doses
Indonesia
Population, 270 milliion
Java and Bali, 2 weeks
Limited testing outside Jakarta
Source