UK, the last lockdown
https://www.rsm.ac.uk/resources/rsm-live/
Unlikely to be needed again
Britain learns to treat coronavirus like flu
Prof Chris Whitty
Up to 25,000 people die in a bad flu year without anyone noticing, 2017 -2018
Every year, somewhere between 7,000 and 9,000 citizens die of flu
most of them very elderly
Accepting some Covid deaths, the price of a whole life
Royal School of Medicine webinar
Government, pull the alarm cord because of dangerous now VOC
Covid is not going to go away
You’ve got to work out what’s a rational policy to this and here I would differentiate quite a lot between a
pandemic environment and what you get with seasonal flu
So it is clear we are going to have to manage it, at some point, rather like we manage the flu.
Here is a seasonal, very dangerous disease that kills thousands of people and society has chosen a particular way round it.
Society would not tolerate lock down to prevent flu type numbers
We want to get as close as we can [to zero] but the question is how do you balance that against other priorities?
What are people prepared to put up with
Flu appears to be optional
We need to work out some balance which actually keeps it at a low level,
minimises deaths as best we can, but in a way that the population tolerates,
through medical countermeasures like vaccines
and in due course drugs,
which mean you can minimise mortality while not maximising the economic and social impacts on our fellow citizens
Lockdowns would be reimposed if cases rose? No, I don’t think so
Impossible to prevent variants from coming into the UK
We have to accept the idea that stopping variants coming to the UK is not a realistic starting point,
but you can slow it down
US
Increase in cases
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
US vaccinations
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
First dose, 100 million (30%)
Second dose, 56 million (16.9%)
Janssen, 3.5 million
US, Forecasting
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklydeaths
US Cases
Texas cases
US Deaths,
Iraq
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/4/2/iraq-battles-new-surge-in-coronavirus-cases
Poor compliance
Surge
Over half UK variant
Younger patients
Vaccines in Iraq
Early March, 50,000 from Sinopharm, 336,000 from Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine
India
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2/indias-daily-new-covid-infections-highest-in-six-months
Cases, + 81,466 = 12.3 million
Highest since October
Deaths, 469 = 163,396
Vaccines in India
65 million so far
Over 45 now allowed
Turkey
Population, 82million
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2/turkey-daily-covid-19-cases-exceed-40000-highest-level-yet
Cases, + 40,806 = 3.3 million
Deaths, + 176 = 32,713
Highest figure of the pandemic
Government eased restrictions early March
Nationwide weekend lockdowns form April 13
Communal meals, Ramadan, prohibited for second year
Curfew, 9pm to 5am
15 million doses, Sinovac since 15th Jan
Source