COVID-19 Human Challenge studies
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk
https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/
Specially convened Research Ethics Committee
Convened by the HRA; it was not deemed by the MHRA to be within remit
Imperial College London, Dr Chris Chiu, the chief investigator
https://www.hra.nhs.uk
https://www.hra.nhs.uk/about-us/news-updates/covid-19-human-infection-challenge-vaccine-studies/
Ninety, aged between 18 and 30
Test efficiency of vaccines
Second generation vaccines
Immunological reactions
Transmission characteristics
Viral infective dose
Administered in liquid form, into the volunteer’s nostrils
Royal Free Hospital in north London
Isolated room for two and a half weeks
Then monitored for up to a year.
Risk of outdoor transmission of Covid-19 is low
Professor Mark Woolhouse, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh
There’s been very, very little evidence that any transmission outdoors is happening in the UK
There were no outbreaks linked to crowded beaches
Avoid pinch points, travel, cafes
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2021/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_0.pdf
February 12, 2021
US daily cases have declined sharply
Next four months, balance of four factors
(Many different outcomes possible)
Vaccination (71% prepared to accept)
Declining seasonality, now until August
Spread of variant B.1.1.7
Increased transmission behaviour
Daily case decline, vaccination increases, = behaviors to increased transmission
Infections are expected to increase after mid-March at least for 4-6 weeks
Cases, decline until mid-March, then increase to over 200,000 again by early April
Stress on hospital capacity in some states
Deaths not increasing due to vaccination
Deaths by 1st June
Vaccinations, 145 million adults (preventing 114,000 deaths)
Deaths, 616,000
Daily deaths should continue to decline
Mask wearing, 76% (always wore a mask when leaving home)
Universal mask coverage (95%) = 34,000 fewer cumulative deaths
Unknown protection of previous infection to VOC B.1.351
Current situation
18% of people in the US have been infected as of February 8
59 million
Cumulative infection rates greater than 25%: North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and New York
South Africa uses Johnson & Johnson
Unused, 1 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca
First batch of 80,000 doses landed in the country from Brussels late Tuesday
Single dose, stored in refrigerators
US, Johnson & Johnson
Only a few million doses in stock
Committed to providing 100 million doses by June
US, Pfizer and Moderna
Promised to deliver 200 million doses by the end of March
So far, 72 million doses have been shipped around the U.S
HERA incubator programme
EU proactive in second generation vaccine development
Ursula von der Leyen
The virus has evolved and will continue to evolve
It is important we prepare for mutations
Already-authorised, AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna
Johnson & Johnson, EMA by middle of March
Croatia
In talks for 1 -2 million doses of Sputnik V
(Not yet been approved by EMA)
Hungary is currently using Sputnik V
Tourism needed
South Africa
Adrian Gore, CEO of health insurer Discovery
The number of people who have been infected, in our view, is probably over 50% of the country
Most of excess deaths attributable to Covid-19
National Blood Service
Eastern Cape, 63% have been infected
KwaZulu-Natal, 52%
Taiwan
Health minister Chen Shih-chung
Crucial deal to acquire the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had failed at the final step
I was worried about interference from external forces
I was worried about political pressure
We believed there was political pressure
The deal fell through… because someone doesn’t want Taiwan to be too happy
German firm BioNTech, struck a deal with Shanghai-based Fosun Pharmaceutical Group to bring the vaccine to China
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