US, 1 million deaths this week, 100 million cases this fall and winter
1918 / 1919
At least 50 million worldwide
675,000 in the United States
(Population 105 million)
Mortality was high in
Younger than 5 years old
20-40 years old
65 years and older
National Center for Health Statistics
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm
More than 1 million deaths
Higher death rate than in any other major industrialized country
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/02/24/2022.02.23.22271380.full.pdf
Life expectancy, biggest drop since 1918
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm
Overwhelmingly unvaccinated
Mostly old, low income, Black, Hispanic
2020
Heart disease, cancer, Covid
Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States (Pen State)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2007476117
9 million who have lost a close relative
Grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, child
US cases / infections
Probably start to go down from late May
BA.2.12.1 subvariant set to overtake BA.2
Cases may increase in the South over summer
Biden administration
100 million infections fall and winter 2022
Waning immunity, vaccines and infections
Variant immune escape
Loosened restrictions
Projections assume omicron and subvariants will continue to dominate community spread
No dramatically different strain of the virus
Seroprevalence of Infection-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies — United States, September 2021–February 2022
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7117e3.htm
Convenience sample of blood specimens, for anti-N antibodies
As of February 2022
18 to 49 years, 63.7%
50 to 64 years, 49.8%
Over 65s, 33.2%
Children and adolescents
75% of had serologic evidence of previous infection
High infection rate for Omicron, especially among children.
Should not be interpreted as protection from future infection
Vaccination remains the safest strategy for preventing complications from SARS-CoV-2 infection
COVID-19 Results Briefing, United States of America, April 7, 2022
https://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2022/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_3.pdf
76% of people in the US have been infected at least once as of April 4
Do not suggest a substantial BA.2 surge in the US
But if we do, last for 3 weeks
There is not sufficient evidence at this time that BA.2 spread warrants a broader push on a fourth booster, except in those at high risk.
Pfizer and Moderna
Working on new booster shots
Combine different variants of the virus
Source