Slides, followed by SAGE report
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-12-july-2021
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001345/2021-07-12_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_Publication.pdf
ONS review
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
SAGE, 12th July
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf
Prevalence of infection across the UK
England, Scotland, Wales, R = 1.2 to 1.5
Scotland and Wales = 1.3 to 1.6
England, estimated 21,000 and 42,000 new infections per day
England, around 400 COVID-19 hospital admissions day
Ethnic minorities have been more affected
Reductions in morbidity and mortality in hospital patients
Due to the lower average age of patients and vaccination
Initial results from human challenge studies in unvaccinated young adults
Roadmap modelling
Remain several factors which are not known, some of which cannot be determined before the step is taken
Therefore, peak of the next wave cannot be predicted with accuracy
Key uncertainties are changes in behaviours
(which may be different in different groups)
How quickly variables return to pre-pandemic levels
Vaccine effectiveness uptake
All modelled scenarios show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August
There are four major risks
Increase in hospitalisations and deaths
Long-COVID workforce absences
Increased risk of new variants emerging
High prevalence and high levels of vaccination = an immune escape variant
(likelihood of this happening is unknown)
Challenge to testing, contact tracing and sequencing
Hospital admissions
Highly uncertain
Likely to reach at least 1000 per day
(563 yesterday)
(Jan, 2021, up to 4,000 per day)
may become challenging for the NHS (medium confidence)
Pre-defining hospital (and ICU) levels would trigger further contingency planning and interventions
It is almost certain that the peak in deaths will be well below the levels seen in January 2021
assuming that no new dominant variant emerges, (high confidence)
Delay would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter
(high confidence)
Recommended
Maintaining people working from home
Masks in crowded indoor spaces
Increasing ventilation
Would reduce transmission and hospitalisations (high confidence)
Isolation of people likely to be infectious (high confidence)
Effective test and trace remains an important part of preventing spread
Vaccine uptake continues to be critical
Source