Friday 26th March
UK
Past 7 days
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Cases, +38,424 (down 2%)
Deaths, +520 (down 31.4%)
Admissions, +2,918 (down 19.8%)
In hospital = 5,544 (20th March)
Bed occupancy down from 50% to under 5%
First dose: 28,991,188
Second dose: 2,775,481
CoViD tracker app
https://covid.joinzoe.com
Flattening of new cases, 10 days
R = around 1
One in 920 people have symptoms
Reasons for flattening
False positive, 1,000 cases
Under the age of 50
Under the age of 19
As predicted due to vaccinations
Reinfections, 352 cases from the app
However overall immunity working well
Half population vaccinated, 2nd to Israel
74% protection after first 30 days
Zero protection for 12 days
Risk of new variants minor after vaccination
What to do?
Greater awareness of symptoms
Testing everyone with symptoms
Do a better job in isolating people
Full vaccinations, getting back to normal
Confident we will be through this soon
Regional differences emerging
Wales and Scotland higher (schools returned earlier)
West Midlands turn upwards
SE and London cases going down
US
200 million in 100 days
That’s by 30th April
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/25/joe-biden-live-updates/
Averaging 2.5 million doses a day over last week
1.9 million per day needed
EU conference yesterday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56529868
No export ban
Dr. Von der Leyen
I think it is clear that first of all the company has to catch up
has to honour the contract it has with European member states before it can engage again in exporting vaccines
India
Population
1,390,108,411 (UN, 2020)
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/25/india-coronavirus-cases-vaccine/
Cases, + 53,476
Highest figure since October
Higher proportion of cases seem to be asymptomatic
Deaths, + 250
Factors
Changes in behaviour
Waning immunity among those previously infected
Mumbai, 90% of new cases not in the slums
Massive internal movements and commuting
New variants
Elections and festivals soon, Kumbh Mela
Vaccination
Up to about 50 million
All Indians 45 and older, eligible for vaccines starting April 1
Oxford AZ
Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin
https://www.bharatbiotech.com/covaxin.html
Inactivated vaccines
n = 25,800
81% interim efficacy
Punjab
February to early March, 80% of cases UK variant
South Africa and Brazil present at lower levels
India variant, mostly Maharashtra
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1707177
2 mutations that confer immune escape and increased infectivity
E484Q and L452R mutations
Found in about 15-20% of samples
Do not match any previously catalogued VOCs
Kerala, N440K, associated with immune escape
Source
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