United States, CDC trends
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
Official US hospitalizations
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html
Thanksgiving + 7 days is Wednesday 2nd Deccember
Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389
Clinical Infectious Diseases, (accepted paper)
Laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable
Reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number
Methods
To estimate the cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations
Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted:
sources of under-detection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity
Results
Nationally reported cases
February 27–September 30, 2020
One of every 2.5 hospitalized infections
One of every 7.1 non-hospitalized illnesses
Applying these multipliers along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews…
we estimate that:
2.4 million hospitalizations
44.8 million symptomatic illnesses
and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S.
Conclusions
One in 8 or 13%, of total SARS-CoV-2 infections were recognized and reported through to the end of September
30th November
Cases, 13, 142, 997
Cases, x 8 = 105, 143, 977
Deaths, 256,166
CFR = 1.95
IFR = 0.25
Older Adults
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html
Eight out of 10 deaths I the US have been in older adults, over the age of 65
Source