New Omicron Subvariant, Crazy Infectious
Dr. Ashish Jha, White House COVID-19 response coordinator
So am I concerned about XBB.1.5? Yes
Am I worried this represents some huge set back? No
We can work together to manage the virus
And if we all do our part
We can reduce the impact it will have on our lives
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@AshishKJha46) January 4, 2023
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/986759?src=wnl_recnlnew1_ous_230112_MSCPEDIT_&uac=127834AR&impID=5080457
Spread of XBB.1.5 is stunning
80% of Americans who’ve already been infected are likely to catch it again
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2023/01/06/covid-update-xbb-variant-symptoms-reinfection/10995204002/
Dr. Paula Cannon, virologist, University of Southern California
It’s crazy infectious
All the things that have protected you for the past couple of years,
I don’t think are going to protect you against this new crop of variants
Essentially, everyone in the country is at risk for infection now,
even if they’re super careful,
up to date on vaccines,
or have caught it before
The number of severe infections and deaths remains relatively low,
despite the high level of infections,
US Variant Proportions
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
All omicron
BQ.1.1 34%
XBB.1.5 27.6%
BQ.1 21.4%
XBB 4.9%
BA.5 3.7%
BN.1 3%
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 49
11 January 2023
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128554/variant-technical-briefing-49-11-january-2023.pdf
Current high UK incidence
England, prevalence 4.5%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/infections
Primarily of BQ.1 and sub-lineages
Hospitalisation (BQ.1)
Preliminary analysis, no increase in risk for people with BQ.1 compared to BA.5
Effectiveness of the bivalent booster against hospitalisation with BQ.1
At 2 or more weeks after receiving the booster
BQ,1 50.3%
BA.5 64.0%
XBB
First flagged, 11 October 2022
Recombinant lineage
2 BA.2 parent lineages BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1
Advantageous spike mutations from both
(about 12 compared to BA.2)
More receptor binding domain mutations
Plus 23 non spike mutations
Rapid replication in primary culture of nasal epithelium
XBB.1.5, (Kraken)
Currently at low prevalence, 4.5%
Has a combination of immune escape and ACE-2 affinity
XBB.1.5. has a 38.83% relative growth rate more than BQ.1.1
XBB is phenotypically similar to other Omicron variants,
rather than to Delta or earlier variants of concern.
CH.1.1
Currently at moderate prevalence
Has a 21.56% relative growth rate more than BQ.1.1
Variant prevalence, 26 December 2022 to 1 January 2023
51.3% BQ.1
19.5% CH.1.1
7.2% BA.5
4.9% BA.2.75
4.5% XBB.1.5
3.6% XBB
2.1% were BA.2
0.12% BA.4.6
0.7% classified as other
Reports from Variant Technical Group members
Neutralisation titres against XBB are the lowest of any contemporary variant tested
So, expect post vaccine and post infection breakthrough
(Rapid replication in primary culture of nasal epithelium)
Current reported covid symptoms in the UK
https://health-study.joinzoe.com
Blocked nose 57%
Sore throat, 57%
Runny nose, 53%
Headache, 52%
Cough no phlegm, 50%
Sneezing, 50%
Cough with phlegm, 44%
Hoarse voice, 40%
Muscle pains, 27%
Loss of smell, 22%
Fatigue, 22%
Altered sense smell, 21%
Dizzy, light headed, 19%
Swollen neck nodes, 19%
Earache, 15%
Shortness of breath, 16%
Chest pain / tightness, 14%
Wheezing, 12%
Chills / shivers, 12%
Source