18 million excess deaths

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Paper in the Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext

Data set
http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/covid_19_excess_mortality

Health metrics and evaluation
https://www.healthdata.org

Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021

Estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic,

in 191 countries and territories,

including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries

12 states in India

Methods

Data collected for pandemic period and past 11 years

All-cause mortality reports

Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality minus expected mortality

Excess mortality = observed mortality -expected mortality

Accounting for late registration,

Six models were used to estimate expected mortality

(statistical model for low data areas)

Findings, as measured by excess mortality

Reported worldwide COVID-19 deaths = 5·94 million,

We estimate 18·2 million

(17·1–19·6 million)

Global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the pandemic, 120·3 deaths per 100 000 of the population

Excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries

Cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19

India, 4·07 million

USA, 1·13 million

Russia, 1·07 million

Mexico, 798, 000

Brazil, 792, 000

Indonesia, 736, 000

Pakistan, 664, 000

Bangladesh, 413, 000

Peru, 349, 000

South Africa, 302, 000

Iran, 274, 000

Egypt, 265, 000

Italy, 259, 000

Australia – 18,100

NZ, – 827

Canada, 43,700

UK, 169,000

Excess mortality highest

Russia, 374·6 deaths per 100 000

Mexico, 433.6 per 100 000

Brazil, 186·9 per 100 000

USA, 179·3 per 100 000

UK, 126.8 per 100 000

Canada, 60.5 per 100 000

Australia, – 32.9 per 100 000

NZ, – 9.3 per 100 000

Ratio of excess mortality rate to reported COVID-19 mortality

A measurement of undercounting the true mortality impact of the pandemic

In high-income North America, the ratios were comparatively low

Morocco, 10

Egypt, 12·19

Sudan, 25·12

Afghanistan, 26·06

Yemen, 33·04

Canada, 1.44

US, 1.37

UK, 0.97

Interpretation

The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone.

Further research is warranted

To distinguish excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection,

and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.

Source