Defining fever

Bywebmaster

Oct 26, 2024

Fever threshold

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/fever-and-temperature

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250480v1

Uninfected volunteers (twins), n = 1,089

Hospitalised, n = 1,227

Community based positives, n = 3,972

Results

Among unaffected volunteers

Lower BMI (p=0.001), and older age (p less than 0.001) associated with lower basal temperature

Basal temperature showed a heritability of 47%

In COVID-19+ participants

Increasing age associated with lower temperatures (p less than 0.001)

For each additional year of age, participants were 1% less likely to demonstrate a fever

Ageing affects temperature in health and acute infection

Older people with COVID-19 were also less likely to have a fever reaching 37.8°C

Current health guidelines, 37.8°C or more should self-isolate

Using a threshold of 37.4°C for over 65s is as sensitive and specific a sign of infection as 37.8°C in adults under 65

Global vaccine tracker

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

UK vaccine tracker

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

US vaccine tracker

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Europe vaccine tracker

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/vaccines

More vaccines for UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55887264

Valneva, an extra 40 million doses, now 100million

French, manufactured in Scotland

Available late 2021, and into 2022

Flexibility

Two doses, dead virus

Fridge storage

Nadhim Zahawi, any surplus vaccine could be distributed globally

South Africa variant in Surrey

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55889391

No known links to South Africa

Identified, Public Health England’s random checks

Surge testing, door to door testing, London, Kent, Hertfordshire, Walsall

US, Francis Collins, (National Institutes of Health)

We’re very worried

All it’s going to take is a couple more mutations on top of that, and you’re really going to have to start worrying

Novavax trial, Previous infection did not provide full immunity to B.1.351

https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-updates

Efficacy against old strain = 95.6%

Efficacy against UK variant = 85.6%

Efficacy against SA variant = 60%

United Kingdom, South Africa, Brazil all in US

U.K. variant, B.1.1.7, 430 cases

Brazil variant, P.1., Minnesota

Jay Butler, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

If a more transmissible strain becomes dominant, herd immunity, 80 to 85 %

Marc Lipsitch, Harvard, School of Public Health

We will not be for decades dealing with a pandemic

The concern is whether it will be a year or three years until we can make enough vaccines against enough strains to get this under control

Israel

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/feb/01/coronavirus-live-news-eu-wants-70-of-adults-vaccinated-by-end-of-summer-israel-extends-covid-lockdown

Population, 9,053,000

Vaccinated, 54% (19.7% completed)

Extends lockdown, started 27 December

Airports and borders closed

Persistent violations among ultra-Orthodox

Thousands pack into funeral, 31st January

Vaccinations complete end of March

Japan

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-vaccine-delay-coronavirus/2021/01/30/a0b66322-5fd6-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html

Vaccines are an essential part of national security (2016 report)

Has not yet started vaccination

(Australia and South Korea)

Japanese vaccine, start-up AnGes in Osaka

Phase III trials, late 2021

Own tests for imported vaccines

Moderna vaccine trial began on Jan. 21, n = 200 people

Finishes March 11

Approval, May

50 million doses ordered

Oxford Astra Zeneca

Approval, late February

90 million manufactured in country

Olympics in July

Vaccinations for over 65s, April

Portugal

Population, 10.2 million

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/feb/01/coronavirus-live-news-eu-wants-70-of-adults-vaccinated-by-end-of-summer-israel-extends-covid-lockdown

UK variant and relaxation of restrictions over Christmas

The country had largely been spared by the first waves of the virus.

Deaths, January, 5,576 = 12,482

Hospitals, close to being overwhelmed

Santa Maria hospital, extra cold containers

Mental health in the Pandemic

Guernsey

Dance festival, 19 – 22 January

Mass spreader event, 186 cases

Now locked down

French warehouse, libertine party

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204555/Police-break-French-warehouse-orgy-involving-100-people.html