Under reporting of deaths, 19 months into the pandemic
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Total deaths, 5,018,949
Total cases, 247,883,004
Total vaccine doses, 7,129,732,439
World Health Organization
https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality
Based on the excess mortality estimates produced for 2020
we are likely facing a significant undercount of total deaths directly and indirectly attributed to COVID-19
Many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems
Percentage of registered deaths
https://www.who.int/data/data-collection-tools/score/dashboard#/
98% in the European
10% in the African region
Comparisons difficult
Excess mortality
The difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis,
compared to those expected under normal conditions
Therefore, includes direct and indirect impact
WHO, 2020 data
Official, 1,813,100
Lower bound, 3 million
Region of the Americas in 2020
Excess mortality estimates range from 1.34 to 1.46 million
60% more than reported
European Region in 2020
Excess mortality estimates range from
1.11 to 1.21 million
50% more than reported
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
Excess death calculations
Actual worldwide toll, 16.8 million excess deaths
95% probability, 10.3 million to 19.5 million
Official versus actual deaths (Economist)
US, deaths = 745,274
US, deaths = 860,000 to 1 million
China, deaths = 4,600
China, deaths = 150,000 to 1,700,000
India, deaths = 458,000
India, deaths = 1.2 million to 7.2 million
Russia, deaths = 236,462
Russia, deaths = 870,000 to 910,000
Indonesia, deaths = 143,457
Indonesia, deaths = 300,000 to 1.2 million
Pakistan, deaths = 28,477
Pakistan, deaths = 300,000 to 910,000
Bangladesh, deaths = 27,873
Bangladesh, deaths = 200,000 to 720,000
Turkey, deaths = 71,052
Turkey, deaths = 130,000 to 420,000
Mexico, deaths = 288,464
Mexico, deaths = 560,000 to 600,000
Brazil, deaths = 608,071
Brazil, deaths = 660,000 to 740,000
Factors
Death tolls are heavily influenced by the age structure of a country’s population
Rely on the assumption that officially published excess-mortality numbers are accurate
Covid-19 disruption, some governments may have changed how they compile data
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend
Total deaths are the estimated number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, including unreported deaths.
Reported and unreported deaths, 11.9 million
Source
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