Good fortune with omicron

South Africa, as of 4th December, R = 2.5

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/covid-19-special-reports/the-initial-and-daily-covid-19-effective-reproductive-number-in-south-africa/

https://www.nicd.ac.za
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/weekly-epidemiological-brief/

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-12-08-covid-19-symptoms-now-are-far-milder-than-in-the-first-three-waves-says-netcare-ceo/

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases

The percentage of positive tests nationally:

24.9% (16.4%) higher than last week

Gauteng, 35%

Limpopo, 32.7%

Mpumalanga, 26.9%

North West, 26.0%

Free State, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, 10% to 15%

Eastern Cape and Northern Cape, less than 10%

Dr Richard Friedland, chief executive officer Netcare

https://www.netcare.co.za

Omicron variant data, Covid-19 symptoms now are far milder than the first three waves

Having personally seen many of our patients across our Gauteng hospitals,

their symptoms are far milder than anything we experienced during the first three waves

Approximately 90% of Covid-19 patients currently in our hospitals require no form of oxygen therapy,

and are considered incidental cases.

If this trend continues, it would appear that, with a few exceptions of those requiring tertiary care,

the fourth wave can be adequately treated at a primary care level

In the first three waves

Netcare, across 49 acute-care hospitals

Treated 126,000 Covid-19 patients,

of whom,

44% required admission

26% required DC or ICU

Significantly, all Covid-19 patients admitted were sick and required some form of oxygen therapy.

The high admission rate, as well as the high percentage of patients requiring ICU or high care is indicative of the severity of cases during the first three waves

Now

337 Covid-19 positive patients admitted

(72% of these patients are in the Gauteng area and 18% in KwaZulu-Natal)

Of these 337,

Approximately 10% are on some form of oxygenation

versus 100% in the first three waves

Eight of 337 (2%) are being ventilated of these,

two are primary trauma cases

During the first three waves

When the overall community positivity rate breached 26% across South Africa

First wave admissions
2,000

Second wave admissions
2,500

Third wave admissions
3,000

Fourth (omicron) wave admissions
337

Of the patients admitted to Netcare hospitals and facilities since 15 November

75% not vaccinated

Seven deaths in Netcare facilities due to Covid-19 complications

Age distribution of patients

Covid-19 patients admitted since 15 November are on average younger than those seen during the first three waves,

71% being 50 years

Average age of 38.5 years

Patients presentations

Mild to moderate flu-like symptoms

Blocked or runny nose

Headache

Scratchy or sore throat

It is our considered view at this early stage that,
should this trend continue,

Covid-19 may be effectively managed at a primary care level,

with the exception of certain cases requiring admission to tertiary facilities

Dr Fareed Abdullah, Office of Aids and TB Research, SA Medical Research Council

80% of admissions below the age of 50 years,

throughout the Gauteng province in the last two weeks

The best indicator of disease severity is measured by the in-hospital death rate.

There were 10 deaths in the in the past two weeks (cohort of 166)

making up 6.6% of the 166 admissions

(23% for all previous waves)

Four deaths, aged 26-36

Five deaths, aged over 60

There were no Covid-19-related deaths among 34 admissions in the paediatric Covid wards over the last two weeks

Omicron variant could act as a natural vaccine

Professor Eleanor Riley, immunology and infectious diseases, University of Edinburgh

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-news-booster-cases-vaccine-passport-coronavirus-omicron2/

Omicron variant could act as a natural vaccine in the unvaccinated

Britons are very likely to contract the variant in the next couple of weeks

Everybody’s very likely to experience it in the next few weeks.

If it is milder, and we know infection induces an immune response,

it is possible that this could act as a natural vaccine,
getting to those people who have so far been unwilling to be vaccinated

But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that,

because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’

And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK.

In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through,

lots of immunity and a much younger population

Advised people to act on the basis that anybody they come into contact with could have coronavirus

Source