UK and South Africa new viral variant

Canada

Approves Moderna / NIH vaccine

Order, 40 million doses

Pfizer already rolling out

France

Approved Pfizer BioNTec vaccine

All ages over 16

Distribution Sunday, first jabs Monday, 28th December

UK

Between 8 and 20 December, 521,594 jabs

Over 80s, 366,715, 70%

Health and care staff

US

115 million traveling

South Africa variant

Christmas parties, super spreader events

N501Y, 501.V2

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55428953

UK, two cases

In London and north west England, Tuesday

Travel restrictions now imposed

Jo burg to LHR landed, 07.19 today (Thursday)

Horses and stable doors

SA to Singapore or Doha, or China, or Amsterdam or Paris today

Anyone from SA or contacts, quarantine immediately

Dr. Zweli Mkhize, SA health minister

SA has sequenced hundreds of genomes since the start of the pandemic

young, previously healthy people are now becoming very sick

cannot go through what we went through in the early days of the Aids pandemic

This genomics team, led by the Kwazulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform, or KRISP, has sequenced hundreds of samples from across the country since the beginning of the pandemic in March. #SARSCOV2MediaBriefing

— Zweli Mkhize (@DrZweliMkhize) December 18, 2020

Prof Neil Ferguson, Imperial College London

I think the greatest concern of ours at the moment is the South African one

There’s certainly anecdotal reports of explosive outbreaks for that virus and very steep increases in case numbers

Mr Hancock

New variant was highly concerning

Anyone told to quarantine must avoid all contact with any other person whatsoever

Prof Lawrence Young, Warwick Medical School

The move to harsher levels of restriction across the country is inevitable

Alan Winde, Western Cape

Hospitals in the province under severe strain

More Covid-19 cases than during the first wave

2020 12

Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

Appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation

VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible

95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%

No clear evidence for greater or lesser severity of disease

Increase in transmissibility, a large increase in incidence

COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020

Even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained

Unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed

Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures

Greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden

UK

China bans flights from the UK

Cases, + 39, 237 = 2,149,551

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Record daily number

Londoners, prevalence = 2%

London, mostly new variant

Deaths, + 744 = 69,051

Deaths, = 79,349

Regions

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Mr Hancock

Six million more people in the east and south east of England, to enter tier four on Boxing Day

Cornwall and Herefordshire up to tier two

Scotland and NI start new lockdowns on Boxing Day.

Old tiering system was not enough to control the new variant

Cases up 57% in past 7 days

Hospital admissions, highest since mid-April

East Anglia had seen a “significant number” of cases caused by the new fast-spreading variant

ONS, 12 to 18 December 2020

Continued increase in positivity rates

England

Prevalence = 645,800

One in 85 people.

Wales

One in 60 people

Northern Ireland

Up to 1 in 180 people

Scotland

Down to 1 in 140

Rates increased sharply in London, the East of England and the South East.

BBC comes good

hands, space, face, replace

Russia

Cases, + 29,935

Deaths, + 635

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Hard copy of the Physiology Notes text book on ebay, https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/-/15402036…

Hard copy of the Pathophysiology text book on e bay, https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/154260052745

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