REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/imperial_react1_r7_interim.pdf
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55124286
Second wave in England
High prevalence in the North with lower prevalence in the South
First in younger adults then school-aged children and older adults
Local tiered interventions were in place up to 5th November
REACT-1
A repeated cross-sectional survey of swab-positivity
Random samples over England
13th – 24th November 2020
Results
Swab tests, 105,123
Positives, 821
Raw prevalence = 0.78%
Weighted prevalence = 0.96%
Down from 1.23 at the start of November
Giving an R of 0.88
Halving time of 37 days
Now down to R = 0.71
Driven mainly by reductions in prevalence in northern regions
Prevalence approximately unchanged in the Midlands and London
Conclusion
Overall, ~30% reduction in prevalence
Inter-regional heterogeneity has reduced
Average absolute prevalence remains high at ~1%
Certain groups had a higher chance of testing positive
Asian ethnicity
Most deprived neighbourhoods
Largest households
It estimated that
Roughly 96 people in every 10,000 had coronavirus, down from 132 per 10,000 just before lockdown
There were about 72,000 new infections a day, compared with 100,000 at the end of October
Tracker app (King’s)
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time
Cases, + 23,363
Official data
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Prof Paul Elliott (Imperial)
encouraging signs
These trends suggest that the tiered approach helped to curb infections in and that lockdown has added to this effect
As we approach a challenging time of year, it’s even more vital that through our actions and behaviours we all play our part in helping to keep the virus at bay
It’s really important in the run-up to Christmas that we keep the virus under control
Source