UK update, 30th November

REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/imperial_react1_r7_interim.pdf

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55124286

Second wave in England

High prevalence in the North with lower prevalence in the South

First in younger adults then school-aged children and older adults

Local tiered interventions were in place up to 5th November

REACT-1

A repeated cross-sectional survey of swab-positivity

Random samples over England

13th – 24th November 2020

Results

Swab tests, 105,123

Positives, 821

Raw prevalence = 0.78%

Weighted prevalence = 0.96%

Down from 1.23 at the start of November

Giving an R of 0.88

Halving time of 37 days

Now down to R = 0.71

Driven mainly by reductions in prevalence in northern regions

Prevalence approximately unchanged in the Midlands and London

Conclusion

Overall, ~30% reduction in prevalence

Inter-regional heterogeneity has reduced

Average absolute prevalence remains high at ~1%

Certain groups had a higher chance of testing positive

Asian ethnicity

Most deprived neighbourhoods

Largest households

It estimated that

Roughly 96 people in every 10,000 had coronavirus, down from 132 per 10,000 just before lockdown

There were about 72,000 new infections a day, compared with 100,000 at the end of October

Tracker app (King’s)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

Cases, + 23,363

Official data

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Prof Paul Elliott (Imperial)

encouraging signs

These trends suggest that the tiered approach helped to curb infections in and that lockdown has added to this effect

As we approach a challenging time of year, it’s even more vital that through our actions and behaviours we all play our part in helping to keep the virus at bay

It’s really important in the run-up to Christmas that we keep the virus under control

Source